the numbers guy

Iowa in 3 days! – prediction time

Posted on: January 1, 2012

If I had to bet the house on it, I’d say Rick Santorum will win Iowa in three days time:

  • He’s the last conservative left standing after all the others have each burnt out.
  • He’s peaking at the perfect time.
  • Mitt Romney’s support is less motivated and his positive polling numbers won’t translate 1:1 on caucus night.
  • There’s a ceiling on Ron Paul’s support, but not on Santorum’s.

I see Mr Santorum consolidating support from former supporters of Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich etc.

His longer-term viability is another matter, but I believe he’s most likely to win on Tuesday night.

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