the numbers guy

Iowa in 3 days! – prediction time

Posted on: January 1, 2012

If I had to bet the house on it, I’d say Rick Santorum will win Iowa in three days time:

  • He’s the last conservative left standing after all the others have each burnt out.
  • He’s peaking at the perfect time.
  • Mitt Romney’s support is less motivated and his positive polling numbers won’t translate 1:1 on caucus night.
  • There’s a ceiling on Ron Paul’s support, but not on Santorum’s.

I see Mr Santorum consolidating support from former supporters of Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich etc.

His longer-term viability is another matter, but I believe he’s most likely to win on Tuesday night.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

  • None

Twitter – numbersguyblog

Error: Twitter did not respond. Please wait a few minutes and refresh this page.

%d bloggers like this: