the numbers guy

Impressive 20+ swing to Gingrich in early post-SC Florida polling

Posted on: January 25, 2012

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich’s comprehensive 12.5% victory in South Carolina, in which he won 43 of 46 counties, has already had a major impact on the polls in Florida.

Mitt Romney held a solid lead last week in Florida, with one poll putting him up by 26 points. This week, post-South Carolina, things look somewhat different.

Here’s PPP – a 15 point Romney lead has turned into a 5 point Gingrich lead, a swing of 20 points:

And here’s Rasmussen’s verdict, in which a 22 point Romney lead has become a 9 point Gingrich lead – a truly remarkable swing of 31 points in ten days:

Florida votes next Tuesday (31 January), so there remains almost a week to go, with a CNN debate tomorrow evening just around the corner, and plenty of campaigning still to come.

However, on this evidence Mr Gingrich looks to be in pole position and, with back-to-back wins in SC and FL under his belt, all bets will be off heading towards Super Tuesday.


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