the numbers guy

Michigan impossible to call, but gut says Santorum

Posted on: February 28, 2012

With just hours until polls close, Michigan is down to the wire. Late-breaking polling evidence points to a last minute comeback by Rick Santorum, who now seems neck and neck with Mitt Romney.

The final polls by Mitchell/Rosetta, PPP and Rasmussen show a lead for Mr Romney of  +1, -1 and +2 respectively.

This is a much improved situation for Mr Santorum than was the case just a few days ago, where most polls had Mr Romney with a modest but clear single digit lead in the state.

I believe Michigan is just too close to call. I wouldn’t put money on it, but my gut says Mr Santorum – who has consistently over-performed the polls – will eke it out, although it may well be a long night.

2.30am update: Well, the race has just been called for Romney, so my gut was wrong about that one! Romney also won a blow-out victory in Arizona. He’s now positioned strongly with a week to go to Super Tuesday. But in a race that’s seen so many twists and turns, he’ll surely not be counting any chickens just yet.

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