the numbers guy

Final prediction – Obama to win

Posted on: November 6, 2012

It’s election day, and this is my best guess (not a projection) as to how tonight’s result will pan out. The state I am least sure about is Virginia (followed by Colorado):

In a nutshell, with just hours to go, Barack Obama is the clear favourite to win. The reason can be summed up in a single word – Ohio. Mr Obama has maintained a modest but consistent lead in polling in Ohio, a state whose 18 electoral votes are likely to prove decisive.

Without Ohio there are almost no viable routes to 270 for Mitt Romney – Mr Obama on the other hand can win without Ohio, although losing it would make his path to victory far more precarious. My ‘best guess’ map above is an example of this – Mr Obama would win that map even if he lost Ohio, but he couldn’t afford to lose Colorado or even New Hampshire.

Should make for a fascinating election night – if Ohio’s on a knife-edge, it could be a real nail-biter.

(PS – you can create your own ‘best guess’ electoral map at


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